Comparing the Cash Cost of Geno and Darnold in 2024

I thought it would be helpful to have a deep dive into the financial implications of signing Darnold vs keeping and extending Geno. The cap hits are less important then the cash that would be given to both players. This is more relevant when assessing the financial implications. This is estimating how much cash will be guaranteed to both players this offseason:

  • Darnold is rumored to want $35 APY. Let's assume he signs a 4 year deal.
  • Cousins got $100 mil guaranteed out of $180 million (or 55.5%). Let's assume Darnold will have 55.5% of his contract guaranteed.
  • Darnold will earn $77.8 mil this offseason.
  • Geno is rumored to want 40-45. Lets assume $45 million.
  • The length of an extension is unclear but lets assume 3 years.
  • Baker recently signed a contract where half of what he earned was guaranteed. We can use that ratio for Geno's guarantees.
  • That means Geno earns $67.5 mil in new money.
  • His $31 m salary for 2025 would also be guaranteed. The total is $98.5.
  • We should factor in the opportunity cost of not getting the 92nd pick. It is worth around $6.1 m.
  • In total, Geno would've costed $104.6 mil this offseason.

TL;DR: Geno would've been more expensive than Darnold by $26.8 mil or $6.7 mil per year. I'm am using a high end estimate for Geno (both in terms of APY and years). I'm using a more average estimate for Darnold.