Tyrrendor vs Navarre
Tin-Foil Theory Time!
Spoilers for OS ahead!
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Many believe Aaric’s manifestation of pre-cognition is a sign that General Melgren has turned venin, with nature reacting accordingly. But I don’t think that’s the case. Instead, I believe Aaric’s signet emerged because of two pivotal events: the inevitable death of General Melgren and the brewing war between Navarre and Tyrrendor—a war that could ultimately determine Navarre’s survival.
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Let’s start with Melgren. As the Commanding General of Navarre’s armies, bonded to Codagh—the largest, rarest, and most powerful dragon on the Continent—his position and influence are unparalleled. What could the venin possibly offer him? More power? That’s absurd. Melgren doesn’t need the venin, nor would he ever submit to their hierarchy. His greatest fear isn’t corruption; it’s losing the power he already wields or failing to secure Navarre’s future.
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Rebecca Yarros, in an interview, mentioned that while she didn’t constrain herself to Aretia when writing Fourth Wing, she described it as “the center of it all” (source). This framing suggests that Aretia (Tyrrendor) was always intended to be the place where the true “good guys” reside. It positions Tyrrendor as the heart of the Continent’s resistance to tyranny, corruption, and the venin.
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But Navarre is seems to be the "main" kingdom now and it is at a crossroads, as Tyrrendor is no longer a willing subject. Tensions have been rising. Tyrrendor has stopped supplying Navarre with essential alloys for anti-venin weaponry and has welcomed refugees from Poromiel, defying King Tauri’s wishes. The fractures in their alliance are widening, and a war between the two is now all but inevitable...
Why? Tyrrendor no longer needs Navarre.
- Tyrrendor has its own fully functional forge producing weapons against the venin.
- Their wards have been restored and are capable of further extensions, just like Basgaith’s.
- They have their own alloy mines and the means to create anti-venin weapons.
- Rune weaving knowledge has been preserved and advanced.
- They’ve established alliances with Poromiel and the islands, thanks to Xaden and Violet.
- They even have their own dragon hatching grounds.
Navarre, on the other hand, relies on Tyrrendor for alloys, weapons, and conscripts. This dependency is a ticking time bomb. Tyrrendor’s self-sufficiency means they no longer need Navarre, but Navarre can’t survive without Tyrrendor’s resources. And Tyrrendor now has a ruler who does not agree with King Tauri's closed-broders policy.
This sets the stage for internal war. It won’t just be Violet versus King Tauri—it will be Tyrrendor versus Navarre’s army, led by General Melgren and Codagh.
A confrontation of this magnitude would inevitably lead to a clash between the Continent’s strongest dragons: Tairn and Codagh. It’s no coincidence that these two dragons exist at the same time, bonded to leaders who now stand on "opposing" sides of this conflict. Their collision is inevitable.
Codagh believes sacrificing lives for the sake of safety is justified, while Tairn does not. Codagh represents Navarre’s dominance and its willingness to sacrifice lives for safety of the borders/future, while Tairn embodies Tyrrendor’s independence and a belief in a better path.
I do not see a future where Gen. Melgren comes out of this confrontation alive (Codagh might, though).
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As riders and rebels, Voilet and Aaric share a vision for the greater good of the Continent. Both of them would prefer a resolution that avoids unnecessary bloodshed. Yet, they’re caught between two nations moving toward war.
This is where Aaric becomes crucial.
As the third son of Navarre’s King, second in succession, Aaric holds a unique position. His pre-cognition, though hidden, gives him insight into the events to come. In Iron Flame, Aaric’s seemingly casual question about whether Tairn could defeat Codagh wasn’t casual at all.
It hints at his foresight of the coming conflict, one that will inevitably pit Navarre’s army, led by General Melgren and Codagh, against Tyrrendor’s forces, led by Voilet and Tairn.
If Violet does confront Melgren directly, it will be likely because she wants to avoid greater bloodshed. She would rather risk herself and Tairn than condemn thousands to a war they don’t deserve.
I think Violet’s strength, combined with Tairn’s, may be enough to take Melgren... but not Codagh down.
Aaric’s role will be critical in ensuring that this confrontation (if it happens ) doesn’t lead to the collapse of Navarre or Tyrrendor.
I think Aaric’s decision to side with Tyrrendor wasn’t just about revolution—it was about aligning himself with what he believes would keep him alive (away from Melgren's machinations). Yet, as King Tauri’s son, he also carries the weight of Navarre’s survival. Could Aaric be the bridge between these two territories?
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Aaric and Violet’s view of the world is pivotal. IF both want what’s best, not just for their nations but for the Continent, IF Tyrrendor truly is the center of everything, as the writer has hinted, then their alliance could be the key to shaping the future...
Could it be that Aaric’s possible alliance with Violet/ Catriona —suggests he believes in a vision of peace and unification. As the son of Navarre’s King, Aaric also has the potential to act as a bridge between the two nations....
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TLDR:
Aaric’s pre-cognition didn’t manifest because Melgren turned venin—it manifested because the Navarre-Tyrrendor conflict is the pivotal moment for the Continent’s future. Aaric and Violet will be allies, united by their desire to protect the people caught in the crossfire. Their shared vision for peace might just be the key to avoiding total devastation.
Aaric, as both the son of Navarre’s King and a trusted ally of Tyrrendor, could be the one to bridge the divide and find a solution that benefits both nations.
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Just my thoughts after the first read of OS! Looking forward to other theories!